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Boom or Bust ??? Seniors and young adults will influence U.S. housing markets

Posted on Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Well here is an interesting thought. We all know about the aging boomers but we may have the housing impact backwards. According to Florida Realtor “Over the next two decades, the aging baby boomer generation will swell the nation’s senior population by 30 million. That demographic shift will likely help increase the supply of housing, since people over age 65 typically release much more housing than they absorb.” Oh oh, releasing supply is not good, that means increasing supply and depressing prices. Let’s take a look at this.
It is true around Naples we often here folks talking about simplifying their homesteads, downsizing to something more comfortable. Some of that could be a reaction to wealth loss over the last few years, some it due to style preferences, some of it due to who knows what but there is a clear trend toward smaller places.
I think the real news is not so much about the boomers and their supply-release but more about WHERE they live.  The move south and south-west migration is on, perhaps as big as the post civil war up-north migration.  Folks are aging out and heading out – for Florida, Texas, Arizona .  And what do they do when they make the move?  More and more we see folks upgrading their Naples real estate and selling off their up-north or out-west properties. They want to live in Naples year round or at least longer each year so their real estate preferences move with them.
Just yesterday at a Naples HOA board meeting the HOA president stated he sees a continuing pattern in this migration. First the migrating humans rent for one to three years. Then they buy a condo because they want control over their things and schedules, or perhaps they had bad rental experience. Then they start to spend more and more time in Naples and eventually decide they want that single family residence here in Naples to replicate the up-north or out-west living standard.
What doest this mean for Naples? More people are coming folks. We already know more boomers are migrating to Naples, Florida.  The new news is over time watch for the rent-condo-single family progression to play out.  If you would like to get ahead of the pattern and avoid some transaction fees and moving expenses maybe skip right to the single family answer.

What’s a good early indicator to see if this migration and single family home trend is right?  Look to the developers and what they are building. answer is where some of the developers are headed these days – like Collier Enterprises for example. Look for the ground breaking on Sable Bay at the end of the year or so – hundreds of single family homes going up. They get it.
So what? Expect some up north property “supply-release”,  relative population losses in the north and watch the Naples real estate market follow a wave of boomers, some already here, “up grading” to single family homes.
That’s what we think – what are our thoughts?

No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog.  Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction.  Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Mark Goebel, PA
REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3921
Facebook: NaplesBestAddresses
Twitter @mcgoebel
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