Posted on Thursday, March 28, 2013
Want to forecast future real estate sales? Look no further than “pending sales” that nuance of the real estate business where sellers and buyers tell the world the property’s seller and a buyer have reached agreement and a sale is pending.
So what’s the trend? BIG. In Naples we were running along at approximately 700 pending sales each month for most of last summer and Fall and then in January and now February KABOOM our market increased significantly and we are now at 1198 pending sales this month in the Sunshine MLS – that’s up 71%.
Sure, some of these pending sales will not close due to financing, insurance or other issues but this was true when we were running along at 700 pending sales per month AND at a rate of 700 per month we saw prices rise and inventories remain tight. Nice. We should be in for a real treat as 1100+ pending sales work their way through the pipeline.
All of this sales activity is further reducing inventories. A look at the Sunshine MLS data this morning shows we are down to 7.04 months – a decrease from last month as sales outstrip new properties coming on the market. There are 5,354 properties for sale in the “All Naples Area” and 9,125 properties have sold in the last twelve months giving 7.04 months of inventory.
Look for more housing starts if this keeps up – more spec homes and more new development. Are we back to the Boom-Boom days of the early 2,000’s? Nope but things are noticeably better.
How are things going along nationally in this regard? According to a report in Florida Realtors (http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/article.cfm?p=1&id=289234) pending home sales are running along ok but not growing. They say “February pending home sales flattened with limited buyer choices, but remained at the second highest level in nearly three years, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 0.4 percent to 104.8 in February from a downwardly revised 105.2 in January, but is 8.4 percent higher than February 2012 when it was 96.6. Contract activity has been above year-ago levels for the past 22 months; the data reflect contracts but not closings.”
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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog. Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
Some of the data relating to Naples homes for sale and Naples real estate for sale on the NaplesBestAddresses.com website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Mark Goebel, PA REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South Mobile: 239.595.3921 NaplesBestAddresses.com Facebook: NaplesBestAddresses Youtube http://www.youtube.com/user/naplesbestaddresses?feature=results_main