Posted on Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Ten thousand properties sold in twelve months. People ask us what Naples real estate is like right now. Ten thousand sales is a good way to think about. Natural demand with migrating families and business formation continues to drive a very strong market. Single family homes, condos, town houses, vacant land, investment properties are all attracting buyers. As a result, inventories are unusually tight for this time of year with good support for current prices. Just wait until tourist season accelerates business in the next few months!
Let’s take a look at the highlights
- Naples inventories are tight at 6.36 months – much tighter than this time last year (8+ months) and supportive of increased prices
- Pending sales of 1,295 support near term trends
- Average sold prices are up 5.93% over last year
- Luxury home inventories are a little soft at 14.42 months
What are we hearing on the street this month? Tourism is in full swing. Social Calendars are filling up (do not miss “Lights in Garden” this month at the Naples Botanical Garden). The rental peak, typically January through March, is just weeks away. Naples weather is now comfortably in the winter pattern (think 70’s-80’s and plenty of sunshine). ll of this spells big demand for real estate again this winter. With inventories unusually low this time of year we expect some price appreciation.
The significant U.S. north to south migration is still underway due in part to climate but also increased opportunities for young families, favorable personal tax treatments, state budget surpluses and an increased attention to the environment all allow Florida to grow to the third largest state in the Union. The northern “tax” issue is now well documented and several northern cities reference people headed south for tax reasons – this migration may even be accelerating. It seems most daily newspapers carry a story about high “up north” tax rates and fees causing a business and/or personal exodus. We see this trend increasing in the years ahead.
I know, I know you are thinking all this economic growth is due solely to people movement. Well that’s a lot of it but did you know our county is one of the leading areas for new job growth in the country? Naples is changing, in size, in jobs, in things-to-do and oh yes – it is the #1 healthiest spot for female longevity in the United States. Retirees may have started the boom years ago but there is a lot more going on today.
Let’s take a look at individual areas around Naples. There are important variations in sales trends and our buyers and sellers benefit knowing the specifics. Twelve months inventory (or supply) is considered “equilibrium” with no significant short term price changes expected – up or down. Lower inventories may produce higher future prices, higher inventories may produce lower prices due to supply and demand forces.
Here are the inventories and trends we see this month across Naples:
Olde Naples 8.85 (growing) – expect support for price increases
Pelican Bay 8.93 (growing) – expect support for price increases
Windstar On Naples Bay (less than 12 months) – expect support for price increases
Crayton Road 8.19 (growing) – expect support for price increases
Royal Harbor 13.38 (growing) – expect downward price pressure
Port Royal and Aqualane Shores 14.03 (growing) – expect downward price pressure
Marco Island 10.23 (growing) – expect support for price increases
What is the point in all this detailed inventory stuff? Well the point is, inventories differ widely by neighborhood, and so should prices in the short term. Buyers and Sellers should do their homework and price AND market and submit offers accordingly! Give us a call and we can help you sort it out.
Please remember new construction provides wonderful opportunities for buyers and we help many families purchase in these communities. Naples area construction is still booming which causes some downward price pressure in resales due to competition. Talk to us about comparing new construction and resales. We would be happy to help you think through this.
Please give us a call if you are considering buying, selling or renting – or just to provide more facts. We would love to listen to you and help.