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Making Sense of The National Foreclosure Data – How Does This Impact You?

Posted on Tuesday, November 15, 2011

We are concerned about the continued research showing foreclosures are still with us – and may continue to be with us for a while. But does foreclosure volume really matter to an individual buying or selling a home? Maybe – depends on the specific property in the specific neighborhood because we all know  “all real estate is local.”

So how do we sort this out? Believe the research or believe the local facts? Well both can be true, let’s take a look at the research and the local data this morning.  First some research. Julie Schmit in USA TODAY reported “Foreclosure sales are moving so slowly in half of the states that at the current pace, it will take more than eight years on average to clear the 2.1 million homes in foreclosure or with seriously delinquent mortgages, new research shows. … The backlogs suggest that the fallout from the nation’s worst housing-market collapse is likely to weigh on real estate prices in many markets for years to come, and on some markets for longer than on others.” This is good research and something to keep an eye on.
Now let’s take a look at some local neighborhood data – specifically the Naples single family residence market in Olde Naples where in 2000-2005 we saw significant price appreciation only to be hit by the challenges of the 2007-2010 market. This morning there are 66 single family residences for sale in Olde Naples, and last year Naples real estate professionals sold 64 residences in Olde Naples – about as close to a one year supply as you can get. So what? Well at one year inventory levels prices, all other things being equal, may remain stable. Any foreclosures in this area have added to supply sure, but the overall demand is keeping overall supply at a good level.

Do some Naples areas have a worse supply picture? Yep. Do some neighborhoods have a tighter supply picture?  Yes, even down to six months in one case we found last week and that should support prices for a while.  So what do you do if you are buying or selling in Naples – consult your local Realtor for the facts in your neighborhood. Be careful with foreclosure volume sure, but keep the overall supply-demand picture in mind for your specific area to make a good real estate decision.

Have a great morning and tell us what you think.
No legal advice or suggestions are being given in this Blog and the writing of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.

Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.

Mark Goebel, PA
Mobile: 239.595.3921
Facebook: NaplesBestAddresses
Twitter @mcgoebel