Posted on Tuesday, January 17, 2012
I took a look this morning at the Naples Real Estate market – specifically a by-the-numbers review of inventory and volume trends.
First conclusion – the Naples real estate market is running low on properties to sell. We reported this trend some time ago but a quick look at the numbers in the Sunshine MLS shows 6,612 properties for sale in the all Naples area and over the last year 8,202 properties sold. This adds up to an inventory of 9,67 months – a level we would expect some price stability and more balance.
Low inventory translates into many real estate market behaviors. One example is three developers in town announcing new projects. New construction in the face of dwindling supply – makes sense.
The second conclusion this morning – volumes are slowing. This is a little puzzling as we enter high season here. We looked at sales in the last three months (1,575 properties) compared to sales in the prior three months (1,722). One would expect accelerating sales as we head into season but in reality an 8.6% decline in volume. As reported in this blog a few weeks ago I thing the “easy middle” of the market traded, that is compliant sellers and willing buyers. We may be left with more stingy (less likely to reduce prices on old listings) matched up with buyers driving a hard bargain.
Slower volumes also translate into real estate behaviors. How this all translates into price will be difficult to call – on the one hand we could see more price reductions from sellers trying to entice those buyers as things are moving more slowly. On the other hand some sellers will sense the scarcity of of 9.67 month market and hold fast. It will depend on the seller and the neighborhood.
So the bottom line this morning? Property inventories are low relative to buying volumes. Should be good for the market and it will require buyers here to find a good Realtor for the detective work required to find that best local property for you.
No legal or investment advice or suggestions are being given in this Blog. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. Please consult a lawyer or investment advisor for such legal and investment advice. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Mark Goebel, PA
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