Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Sales volume is as important as supply and demand figures in a market. After all the market needs to move, transactions need to happen, or supply and demand are just static measures of properties in place.
The story in Naples today is just ok. Volumes are up 4.0% in the last year for the all Naples area in the sunshine MLS. We are hoping for better. Although inventory is way down – a good thing as lower supply should put some foundation under real estate prices – the buyers and sellers still need to come to terms. Sellers are still holding on after a tough few years and buyers are looking for a great deal. All very rational but very conservative for these parts.
So what? Well all of this market stuff drives customer buy-sell strategy. Our customers have a good view of these trends and adjust their strategies accordingly. Our buyers know the sellers – in general – are holding tight so we might coach a first low offer but be ready to raise the stakes if you want that property. And to our sellers – if there is not much inventory go ahead and be a little stingy if you do not have to sell right now.
Naples real estate seems to be lagging national trends. According to a report in Florida Realtors News yesterday “Pending home sales continued to gain in November and reached its highest level in 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 7.3 percent to 100.1 in November from an upwardly revised 93.3 in October. It’s also 5.9 percent above November 2010 when it stood at 94.5. The index hasn’t been this high since April 2010 when it reached 111.5 as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.”
We will see if these national pending sales trends translate into higher sales volumes for Naples real estate. If we do not see the volume increase then you would expect to see prices rise (as sellers drive a hard bargain raising prices) or inventory rise as the market fails to trade. We will see – stay tuned. Prices are up, inventory is down and high season is just getting underway.
No legal or investment advice or suggestions are being given in this Blog. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. Please consult a lawyer or investment advisor for such legal and investment advice. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Mark Goebel, PA
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