Posted on Thursday, January 19, 2012
I am naturally an optimist. Maybe I just feel better thinking positive thoughts. Disappointments abound with such a demeanor but I would rather make a joyful noise and keep moving. A sense of optimism seems to be breaking out on the national real estate front, but let me add a few thoughts on the local Naples real estate level.
Florida Realtor reported two days ago “Optimism is building that the housing industry is nearing a bottom – finally. Home sales and homebuilding are forecast to rise this year after sliding steeply the past five years in housing’s worst downturn since the Great Depression.”
I am not sure “nearing a bottom” will cause us to break out the champaign but these national trends are a nice start. Good to hear others think the big ship is turning and we have seen the worst of it. In Naples real estate locally I have some concerns about volume (see yesterday’s blog) but prices are up and supply is down.If these local trends hold we could say the bottom in Naples real estate was sometime in early 2011 – but we will see.
The report goes on to say “Chief executives are more positive. JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon said last week that housing is near its bottom but could stay there a year. Stuart Miller, CEO of home builder Lennar, said the market has started to stabilize because of low prices and record-low interest rates.”
Full disclosure, I am actually a fan of Mr. Dimon – met with him and in my past life worked with JP Morgan on a variety of projects. No one gets it all right but Jamie’s track record is pretty darn good on my scorecard.
So what? What does all these national predictions mean to the Naples market? Well maybe not a lot. All real estate is hyper local so know your neighborhood and street for more accurate information. For example in working with a client recently we looked at three different condo buildings – all three with very different price histories, sales rates and inventory levels. Our recommend purchase strategies varied building to building. So does all this national forecasting matter? Maybe. It gives us a nice overlay but the real work is at the local level.
Oh yes and remember the most important thing … real estate is not necessarily about finding the great deal (although we all would like a great deal). Naples real estate is really about finding that best address for you as an individual. You will live there not anyone else. Make sure the place is right for you. So sure look for bargains but in the end make sure you love the place and that “Wow” factor is there.
No legal or investment advice or suggestions are being given in this Blog. Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. Please consult a lawyer or investment advisor for such legal and investment advice. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Mark Goebel, PA
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