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Real Estate Prices Will Probably Keep Rising In The Near Term

Posted on Tuesday, August 19, 2014


Supply and demand drives markets and we see a short supply of homes and condos along with increasing demand here mid-month in Naples, Florida.

Let’s look at the numbers. When we look at the Matrix MLS we see 3,649 properties for sale with an annualized selling rate of 3,630 properties giving an inventory of 4.02 months. Twelve months is considered equilibrium in a real estate market – meaning equal up/down price forces. An inventory as low as 4.02 months should create a feeling of scarcity and significant support future price increases.

Ok inventory is short but what is volume like? Shouldn’t volume start to decrease and choke off these recent price increases? Sure, and we do see a slight downward shift in volumes – but only 8% at mid-month. If last year was any indication we should see off-season volumes drop a lot more than 8% – more like 25-30%. The summer market is hanging in there just fine. 8% is not considered much of an offseason drop.
Remember volumes are driven by demographics as well as price and supply. There are just more people coming to Florida.  Florida is on track to become the third largest state in 2015 passing New York. Boomers are moving here for the climate and lifestyle. We still have a heck of lot of sunshine not found up north last winter. Businesses are moving here due in part to favorable tax treatments.  Trends are for an accelerating migration to Florida – which increases demand, which increases prices.
Could it all change? Of course. This is the land of boom and bust real estate! But … for the near term it looks like real estate prices should rise here.  Short supply, solid demand and life in the Florida sunshine.  It should all add up to more price increases in the near term.
Let us hear from you.  Please give us a call at 239.595.3921 and we will be pleased to answer your questions. We hope to meet and talk with you soon,
Mark Goebel PA, Nan Goebel PA and David Goebel, PA
Co-Founders of the Naples Best Addresses team
Coldwell Banker

REALTORS at Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3920 (Nan) 239.595.3920 (Mark) 239.285.2038 (David)
Facebook: NaplesBestAddresses

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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog.  Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction.  Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
We are pleased to announce a portion of our real estate earnings go to support the The Naples Botanical Garden, Habitat for Humanity Collier County, The Race For The Cure Citrus Ride, The Seacrest Country Day School and The Naples Winter Wine Festival.
Some of the data relating to Naples homes for sale and Naples real estate for sale on the website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
Contact us to learn more about Naples real estate trends, the florida rental market, Naples design ideas like coastal contemporary and transitional designs or just get a feel for the place like Naples Florida population trends.