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Sellers Still Rule Local Real Estate, But …

Posted on Monday, February 16, 2015


(sellers at the local farmers market on third and twelfth on Sunday mornings)

So yesterday we hear at our open house “there are a lot of people looking but not many buying.” Interesting comment. Sometimes the “on the street” talk has some basis in realty. Let’s take a quick look at the market at mid-month this morning and see what is really going on.

Readers of the blog will know this is the time of month when we typically look at the close to ask ratio – you know the relationship of actual closing prices relative to original asking prices. Where are we? As of today in the Matrix MLS closing prices are now 4.3% within asking prices. A wider gap than the 3.9% figure last month but still pretty darn good.  Seller’s may be losing a little bargaining power.

Next we look at volumes. Are there a lot of people still buying? Yep. 2,748 transactions in the last 120 days – down slightly from last month’s 2,761 figure but still solid. Interesting, the volume is dropping slightly so sellers again may be losing a little edge – but not much.


(there were plenty of buyers out at the Cars On Fifth show Saturday)

Looking at actual supply we have an inventory of only 6.62 months, up from the beginning of the month at 6.50 months but a level very supportive of future price increases.  Remember a twelve month inventory is considered “equilibrium.”  Anything under this figure shows supplies are tight and with good demand prices should rise.  Hmmm, supply is increasing slightly so seller’s again may be slipping a little but not much.  remember inventories very widely by neighborhood and building so get with us to see your local market – but the big picture still looks solid.

What about days on market? How long does it take to sell a home in this market? 40 days on average – more quickly than 41 days last month so well priced homes are selling quickly. So … looks like sellers are doing ok and perhaps even better than last month as things are selling quickly.

So there may be a little truth in the local scuttlebutt yesterday but this is still a seller’s market, prices should still rise and well priced property is moving off the shelf quickly.

1450_Gulfstar_Drive_S-Living room-1

(well priced homes, even large, gorgeous and upper end homes, are moving quickly)

The newspapers are full of stories right now about Naples home prices.  Eye-popping accounts of asking prices in the tens of millions of dollars. Folks here are reminded of the glory days of the last boom when prices really started to rock.

What are all these numbers and news headlines really tellings us?
*Seller’s may be getting a little “greedy” as the close/ask ratio is widening slightly
*Seller’s may be losing some negotiating power with increasing inventories but well priced homes are moving quickly.
*Buyers and Sellers are coming together more quickly as homes are selling more quickly
455 Palm Cir East Pool

(This home received an offer one day after listing)

What does all of this mean to a seller? Well, a seller needs to know their local market very well. Know your neighborhood or condo building first. We like to suggest to our sellers they complete a detailed comparative market assessment with us (most realtors do this) AND look at the inventory and volume trend in your neighborhood (not many realtors do this) AND go visit competing properties for sale in the neighborhood (not many realtors do this either) and estimate the price at which your property will sell. Then to give yourself some wiggle room mark the price up by the close/ask ratio.  Above this level and you start to tempt fate.

But maybe you heard the market is rising and as a seller you want to go for even more money? Well be careful there, it you need or want to move you do not want to have your home sit for 200, 300 or more days in the market when you could be moving on with your life. If you have all day to sell this is a different matter. Well priced properties in good condition are selling right now sure, but over priced properties are still sitting.

(news construction is drawing away an estimated 50% of  re-sale buyers BUT the re-sale market is still very strong)


If you are a buyer looking at this seller’s market what do you do?.  Work with us to complete the same comparative analysis work coupled with inventory and volume analysis with walk thru of other properties and make your offer accordingly. Figure the seller is going to come down on-average 4%+ right now and you can tell if you are likely to reach a deal. There is no need to over pay unless you really, really have to have it!

Give us a call and we will help you sort it out.
If you would like to know more about living here in Naples, Florida please give us a call at 239.595.3921. We have toured or owned property in Naples for nearly forty years and we are truly fortunate to call this wonderful paradise our full-time home.

Please consider reading our book “Understanding Naples Real Estate” to get you started on your real estate search or just give us a call about things to do here.

We look forward to meeting and talking with you soon,

Mark Goebel PA, Nan Goebel PA and David Goebel, PA
Co-Founders of the Naples Best Addresses team
Coldwell Banker
Mark Goebel, PA and Nan Goebel, PA
REALTOR Coldwell Banker 5th Avenue South
Mobile: 239.595.3921 239.595.3920
Facebook: NaplesBestAddresses

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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog.  Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction.  Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.
We are pleased to announce a portion of our real estate earnings go to support the The Naples Botanical Garden, Habitat for Humanity Collier County, The Race For The Cure Citrus Ride, The Seacrest Country Day School and The Naples Winter Wine Festival.
Some of the data relating to Naples homes for sale and Naples real estate for sale on the website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.
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