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Take Out the Crystal Ball – Six Predictions for Naples Real Estate in 2014

Posted on Monday, December 23, 2013

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As the year draws to a close we reach out to all of you and your families and wish you a very happy holiday and prosperous new year. Our Fall temperatures have stayed with us into December and with readings in the 80‘s it is hard to believe Christmas is upon us. Our northern house guests this week and folks coming to Naples are sure to enjoy a bit of tropical paradise.

With over 5,600 monthly followers our business is wrapping up its best year ever. Thank you all of you for helping and being a part of it. We welcome your referrals of friends and associates so please send them on to us – we will take good care of them.

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Take Out the Crystal Ball – Six Predictions for Naples Real Estate in 2014
We have shined up our crystal ball, gazed into it for a time, crunched some numbers and made our predictions to share with you.
Prediction #1:  Naples and Collier County population will continue to increase. For all of the reasons that we love the Naples lifestyle (beaches, restaurants, shops, weather, friends, and low taxes just to name a few) we expect more individuals and businesses to catch on. Hertz has already declared it is moving to a location nearby, as is another soon to be named tech company. These businesses are brining a large number of new families into the area, along with the steady stream of boomers that are always finding their way south. We expect Naples to steadily grow in 2014. The population growth will increase demand, which will raise prices and reduce inventory.

Prediction #2: Mortgage rates will rise. The 3%, 30 year mortgage rates, that were such a boon for buyers and sellers gradually came to an end in 2013 settling in the mid 4% range. As the government slowly pulls back on its accommodative monetary policy, we expect 30 year rates to continue to shift into the 4-5% ranges with more short term volatility. What do all of these numbers and terms mean for the Naples real estate market?  We predict that mortgage rates returning to more normal levels will have little effect on the overall market. Surely there will be flashy headlines like, “Mortgage Rates at Highest Levels in Years”, but remember we are coming from all-time lows. In the past the low to middle range rates of 4-5% have supported wonderful growing real estate markets, and the slight increase in rates may cause fence-sitters to jump in.

Prediction #3: New construction spurred by increasing demand will provide great new home options. The Isles at Collier Reserve will begin their 1,600 home build in 2014 as well as other new big projects in the area. It is a great sign that these large projects are continuing to resume, and really is a testament to the strength of the local market. However, the real question is, will all of this great new supply be enough to keep up with our predicted growing demand? We think partially, but not completely. Currently, according to our new Matrix based MLS, 1,368 single family homes were sold in the last 120 days against a current inventory of only 2,016. This pace gives us just a 5.9 month inventory of single family homes. While this is one of the best seller’s markets we have had in years, the inventory is well short of the historical 12 month supply for a stable real estate market. We expect inventories to rise in 2014, but only slightly to the 7-8 month range.

Prediction #4: Prices will continue to steadily rise, but at a decreasing rate. As previously discussed, an increasing population, new business formation, boomer arrivals, and an improving national economic environment all spell increasing demand against an already short supply.  Of particular note is the rise in household wealth due to increased stock holdings and real estate. What does this all mean? We think it is the ground work for healthy steady price increases in 2014, which will be kept in check by rising mortgage rates, and a small decrease in volume. Fence-sitters who have been watching rates and prices increase will be nudged to jump on opportunities.

Prediction #5: The single family home around 2,500 square feet and the beachfront condo market will stay hot. McMansions are magnificent homes, but come with their share of headaches, and are on the outs trend wise. Local downsizers are out shopping in force, and first timers are continuing to move south for jobs, retirement, and vacation homes that are similar to what they had up north (single family, a yard, no HOA rules). Everyone is converging on the 2,500 square foot single family home here in the sunshine.  These properties will be going like hot cakes in 2014.  Beachfront condos have also clawed their way back from the 2007-2012 abyss (victims of speculation like you would not believe) and have formed a healthy market again. Look in these areas for some hot action in 2014.

Prediction #6: The party spoiler – volume may start to taper. Our one gotta-keep-an-eye-out prediction is around volume. In a lot of ways this prediction is spurred from our own success. Watch overall volumes and days-on-market for early signs of weakness in 2014. With expected low inventory coupled with rising mortgage rates, prices, and flood and wind insurance costs, purchases may start to become choked off. If we can add enough new inventory then we are ok. However, if inventories can’t keep up there may come a time when properties become too expensive, and buying may plateau while the market reevaluates. This will not necessarily drop prices, but we expect it to curtail the rate that they raise.

As a disclaimer, all real estate is local, and these are just predictions. Please don’t take these broad conclusions and apply them to your own individual 2014 real estate experience.  Why? Because real estate in this town differs street to street. Please do not use these trends in any manner to judge what will happen to you individually.
While it is great to look forward, we generally don’t worry about things that are out of our control. One thing that we can promise is Naples Best Addresses will continue to work relentlessly for our clients, to give them the best experience possible. Even if you are just in the very beginning stages of making a real estate decision, give us a call to lean on our expertise. We are also deeply grateful for all of the referrals that you trust us with.

Winter Got You Down? Take A Youtube Walk On Keewaydin Island

We realize not everyone can get down here or spend enough time here. If you need a little pick me up why not see us on Youtube at and take walk with us on our wonderful barrier island. Start inland at the dock and walk across the jungle to the beach. Over 300+ folks have walked along with us and it may be a great way to pick up your day.

If you would like more sunny images on a winter day see us on Pinterest at where collect images of local real estate, fishing, cycling and tropical gardening – just the ticket on a cold day.

See you in 2014 …….

Come on down here and see us. If you are already here, let’s catch up. And most importantly all the best to each of you in 2014.

Mark and Nan

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Nan Goebel PA and Mark Goebel PA
Coldwell Banker Previews International
550 Fifth Ave South
Naples, Florida

cell  239-595-3920 or 239-595-3921
fax  239-236-1468

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No legal, investment, or tax advice is being given in this Blog.  Consult with legal, financial and tax professionals before acting on any real estate transaction.  Actual real estate price and sales results are subject to market forces and are not completely predictable. The writings of this Blog are intended for the sole use of our clients.

We are proud supporters of The Naples Botanical Garden and Habitat for Humanity
Some of the data relating to Naples homes for sale and Naples real estate for sale on the website comes in part from the Broker reciprocity program of M.L.S. of Naples, Inc. The properties displayed here may not be all the properties available through the MLS reciprocity Program. This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Buyers and sellers are responsible for verifying all information about their purchase prior to closing.
Mark Goebel, PA is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker on 5th avenue in Naples, Florida with 35+ years of visiting and living in Naples. After 25 years at Accenture, Mark retired as a managing director and spends his time helping non profits and building a Naples real estate team with his wife Nan. Talk to Mark and Nan about life in Naples and why they chose this place to live full-time over all others and enjoy Naples real estate.